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By
Rob Hopkins
Traveller,
there are no roads. Roads are made
by travelling. (Spanish proverb)
There is an emerging consensus now
that we are either very close to or
have passed the peak in world oil
production. As someone who has been
involved in environmental issues for
16 years, and permaculture for 13
years, I have to ask myself how I
didn't see this one coming (although
I know some of you did!). The implications
are profound. No longer is it in any
way appropriate to say 'we need to
recycle,' when the processes of recycling
require transporting recyclable waste
long distances. We have to look much
deeper at the whole waste question.
An excellent recent report by Tim
Lang and Jules Pretty, 'Farm Costs
and Food Miles: An Assessment of the
Full Cost of the UK Weekly Food Basket,'
argued that food could only be called
sustainable when it is grown and consumed
within a 20-mile radius. We have to
build a local food economy from an
almost totally non-existent base.
There has been no time in history
when anything less than 70% of the
population were involved in some way
in the production of food. Nowadays
it is more like 6% (here in Ireland,
for example), and of those, a high
proportion would have lost much of
that knowledge. "Green"
building that relies on imported "ecological"
materials from other countries will
no longer be viable, leading to our
needing to rethink how we will actually
construct energy-efficient shelter
in a lower energy near future. We
are looking at the need for a rapid
process of re-localisation, of looking
at what is essential to our lives
(food, warmth, shelter, water) and
rebuilding the local economy in such
a way that it is actually able to
supply these. The process of dismantling
our diverse and complex local economies
over the last 50-60 years was a disastrous
one. It was easy to take apart but
it will be incredibly hard to rebuild.
The recent award winning film The
End of Suburbia (reviewed in
the Activist issue #58) takes a very
sobering look at the whole peak oil
issue. It makes very clear that the
problem is of a scale that is almost
unimaginable, and that the solutions
are really not in place at all, or
indeed anywhere near being so. We
are so dependent on oil for every
aspect of our lives, that its gradual
(or rapid, depending on who you listen
to) but steady disappearance from
our lives will force us to redesign
everything about our communities and
our own lives. We need to relearn
the skills that sustained our ancestors:
crafts, local medicines, the great
art of growing food. This is the biggest
challenge.
Becoming
Aware
My introduction to all this came through
meeting Dr. Colin Campbell. He lives
in Ballydehob in West Cork, where
I was living until recently, and sets
up and runs the Association for the
Study of Peak Oil. He worked in the
oil industry for more than 30 years,
and since his retirement has devoted
himself to researching the real picture
in terms of oil availability (how
much is left, where it is and so on)
through the vehicle of the Association
for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO),
which he founded. It is Colin who
has really brought the awareness of
Peak Oil to the world's atten-tion,
tirelessly travelling the globe, lecturing
governments, invest-ment bankers,
energy experts, telling them all the
same thing, "We are about to
peak, and you need to re-evaluate
what you are doing, because it is
going to change everything."
His life story and his case for peak
oil are set out in his latest book,
Oil Crisis.
A
definitive measure of the limits of
oil presents modern society with an
ultimatum of profound gravity. Helps
break denial of the energy crisis.
Extremely important.
The
world is about to run out of cheap
oil and change dramatically. Within
the next few years, global production
will peak. Thereafter, even if industrial
societies begin to switch to alternative
energy sources, they will have less
net energy each year to do all the
work essential to the survival of
complex societies. We are entering
a new era, as different from the industrial
era as the latter was from medieval
times.
In
The Party's Over, Richard Heinberg
places this momentous transition in
historical context, showing how industrialism
arose from the harnessing of fossil
fuels, how competition to control
access to oil shaped the geopolitics
of the 20th century, and how contention
for dwindling energy resources in
the 21st century will lead to resource
wars in the Middle East, Central Asia,
and South America. He describes the
likely impacts of oil depletion, and
all of the energy alternatives. Predicting
chaos unless the U.S. -- the world's
foremost oil consumer -- is willing
to join with other countries to implement
a global program of resource conservation
and sharing, he also recommends a
"managed collapse" that
might make way for a slower-paced,
low-energy, sustainable society in
the future.
Last September Colin came into Kinsale
FEC where, until last June I taught
the Practical Sustainability course,
the first two-year, full-time permaculture
course in the world (as far as I know),
which I set up in 2001. He came to
talk to my second-year permaculture
students, who had seen The End
of Suburbia the previous day.
Colin gave them an introduction to
petroleum geology, how and where oil
forms, and then went on to look at
how much is left and where it is.
His presentation was so thorough and
well founded in his deep knowledge
of the oil industry that his findings
were compelling. It was a real eye
opener for me and for the students
and a great topical and practical
enhancement to the permaculture curriculum.
I met a friend the following week
who asked, "What did you do to
your students? They all looked ill
for the rest of the week!"
First
Steps
This led on to our planning of the
Kinsale Energy Descent Action Plan
project. The term 'Energy Descent'
was originally used by ecologist Howard
T. Odum in his book, A Prosperous
Way Down, and was picked up and used
by David Holmgren in his Permaculture
Principles & Pathways Beyond Sustainability.
It refers to the time beyond the peak,
the downward trend in energy availability.
Holmgren makes the point that we need
to plan for this descent, rather than
simply allowing it to unfold in a
series of random and chaotic events.
This point is also made by Richard
Heinberg in his book Powerdown:
Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon
Future, in which he calls for
a planned descent, an international
response to peak oil on the same scale
as a wartime mobilisation, to begin
building a low energy future.
 PERMACULTURE:
Principles & Pathways Beyond Sustainability
by David Holmgren
Co-Originator of the
Permaculture Concept
2003,
286pp, $29
This
book builds on the extraordinary success
of the permaculture concept and global
permaculture movement (over the last
25 years), to provide a more cerebral
and controversial contribution to
the sustainability debate. David Holmgren
is an ecological pioneer destined
to have a major influence on permaculture's
evolution.
"If
the 'Permaculture Principles' that
David Holmgren discusses in this extremely
important book were applied to all
that we do, we would be well on the
road to sustainability, and beyond."
Professor Stuart B Hill (Foundation
Chair of the Social Ecology University
of Western Sydney)
Are
there ways to live within nature's
limits while providing a secure future
for our children and justice for everyone?
We think so. Read this book.
A cross-section of community members
invested a day planning energy descent
for the next 16 years in Kinsale,
Ireland.
Another inspiration for me around
this time was a talk I went to by
a woman from a very dynamic community
development group for a small town
in decline in the north of Ireland.
They felt farming was dying, and they
wanted a new direction for the town
with a sustainability focus. What
they did was bring in a sustainability
"expert" who told them that
they needed to develop 'eco-tourism',
and that that would be a sustainable
replacement for farming. I was horrified
by this; it seemed to me to be taking
all the community's eggs out of one
basket and putting them into another,
which was somehow better because it
had an "eco-" tag on it.
Also, all the ideas had come from
the "expert" rather than
the community itself. I thought that
actually a lot more would have been
achieved by running a permaculture
design course for the people in the
village and letting the ideas come
from them.
As the students and myself started
looking around at the books available
on the subject we decided that what
was lacking were examples of towns
that had actually started to look
at this issue. Had anyone actually
started to design pathways down from
the peak for a settlement anywhere
in the world? Cuba is an often-cited
example, but we have to remember that
Cuba was forced to localise by circumstance
(the Russian oil that had supported
the country until that point being
no longer available), and a friend
who visited there recently expressed
a feeling that there was no great
enthusiasm for it among many people.
 The
Power of Community: How Cuba Survived
Peak Oil
53
minutes, DVD or VHS, 2006, $20
The
need to bring agriculture into Havana
began with the fall of the Soviet
Union and the loss of more than 50
percent of Cuba's oil imports, much
of its food and 85 percent of its
trade economy. Transportation halted,
people went hungry and the average
Cuban lost 30 pounds.
Due
to the continuing US embargo, but
also because of the loss of a foreign
market, Cuba couldn't obtain enough
imported food. Furthermore, without
a substitute for fossil-fuel based
large-scale farming, agricultural
production dropped drastically.
So
Cubans started to grow local organic
produce out of necessity, developed
bio-pesticides and bio-fertilizers
as petrochemical substitutes, and
incorporated more fruits and vegetables
into their diets. Since they couldn't
fuel their aging cars, they walked,
biked, rode buses, and carpooled.
The
goals of this film are to give hope
to the developed world as it wakes
up to the consequences of being hooked
on oil, and to lift American's prejudice
of Cuba by showing the Cuban people
as they are. The filmmakers do this
by having the people tell their story
on film. It's a story of their dedication
to independence and triumph over adversity,
and a story of cooperation and hope.
There
are also some very interesting comparisons
with the period immediately before
and during the Second World War in
the U.K. and elsewhere. This was a
national powerdown on a huge scale,
with 10% of the nation's food being
grown on allotments and private gardens.
Although much has changed since then,
there are some very important lessons
that can be learned from it. What
we wanted was to create an example
(as we were unable to find one in
practice) of a town looking at what
peak oil will actually mean to them,
and to vision how they want a low-energy
future to be. As there was no pathway
for this in place, we had to make
one up.
Starting
from Scratch
The first thing we did was to visit
a number of good permaculture/organic
projects in the West Cork area for
ideas and inspiration, but also to
talk to their proprietors about what
they saw as being practical responses
to energy descent that they felt were
tried and tested. That proved to be
very interesting, and gave us some
useful insights. We heard about the
practical realities of making a living
growing organic vegetables for local
markets and how a changing economy
would make that more viable. We heard
about the realities of living off
the grid, and the financial implications
of doing so. We saw the practicalities
of people trying to put the first
building blocks in place, and their
visions for how things might change.
We began to envision a three- to four-year
process of community consultation,
education, and awareness-raising,
combined with practical implementation
of projects on the ground and the
formulation of a timetable plan for
making this transition. This plan
was christened the Kinsale Energy
Descent Action Plan. The idea was
that this year's second year students
would produce the first draft, which
would then be put out to the community
for consultation. Then the following
year's students would revise the document
and update it. We felt that it would
take about three years to produce
something nearing a definitive document,
although there would always be a need
for the plan to adapt to developments,
to be "tweaked."
We had brainstorms on each of the
different areas we identified for
the Action Plan. These included food,
youth & community, education,
housing, economy and livelihoods,
health, tourism, transport, waste,
energy, and marine resources. Future
years may add new categories to this,
but it seemed a good starting list.
We made mind maps of the issues raised
and possible solutions to them. We
also invited speakers into the class
who had a lot of knowledge on some
of these topics.
Kinsale
2021
On Saturday, February 12, 2005 we
held an event in Kinsale called 'Kinsale
in 2021 - Towards a Prosperous, Sustainable
Future Together', which took place
at Kinsale Town Hall. The event was
presented as a "community think-tank"
in order to hear the community's ideas
about how energy descent would affect
it and what might be done in response.
Before the event we sent personal
invitations to the people in Kinsale
whom we had identified as being the
movers and shakers in the town, drawn
from the sectors identified above.
We also left the event open to the
public and put posters up around the
town. From the 60 people invited,
about 35 turned up on the day. The
event itself was opened by the Mayor
of Kinsale, Mr. Charles Henderson,
who spoke of the importance of energy
as an issue and how it affects all
aspects of our lives and our economy.
This was followed by a screening of
The End of Suburbia.
After the film, Thomas Riedmuller,
who teaches community leadership at
Kinsale FEC, introduced the concept
of open space as a tool for facilitating
such events. Open space is based on
the idea that the most productive
discussion and idea sharing at any
event happens during the tea breaks.
Open space is, in essence, a long
tea break, where groups are formed
to discuss certain issues, and everyone
is free to move between discussion
groups, based on the four principles
of open space: Whoever comes are the
right people; Whatever happens is
the only thing that could have; Whenever
it starts is the right time; and When
it's over it's over. Those assembled
took to the open-space model with
great enthusiasm, and it was extremely
productive. People were invited to
identify the specific problems and
issues that the film raised for them.
These were then recorded on large
sheets of paper and pinned up on the
wall. These were then collated into
subject areas, and each of these became
the basis for a discussion group.
The groups covered the following subjects:
food, rebuilding communities, youth
group/education, business and technology,
tourism, and renewable energy.
The groups came up with a wealth of
ideas and possibilities that were
then fed back to the rest of the participants
afterwards. The feedback after the
day was very good. We learned a few
lessons from the event that would
be helpful for people doing it again.
First, a lot of people sent apologies
that they would have liked to have
come, but they were just too busy
to give up a whole day. We found it
difficult to come up with another
model though, because for us it worked
very well to show the film and then
have the discussions straightaway
while the feeling of urgency that
the film engenders was still fresh
in our minds. We were able, thanks
to the generosity of many cafes and
restaurants in Kinsale who sponsored
the event, to put on a sumptuous spread
for lunch, which people loved, and
which kept the energy of the event
high. We wondered if it might have
been better to have had a few screenings
of the film in the community first,
so some people could have seen it
in advance one evening, and thus wouldn't
have had to give up so much of their
time to attend the discussion. We
found open space an excellent tool
for getting people talking in a relaxed
and informal way.
The
Action Plan
After the event, we collated the information
that had come in from the day, and
pairs of students selected from among
the different subject areas. I supplied
a wealth of reading material for background
research, and the students did a lot
of Internet research of useful ideas
and examples from around the world.
The final result is the Kinsale Energy
Descent Action Plan - Version 1.2005,
which is our first attempt at a year-by-year
plan for the town. Each section of
the report begins with a section called
"The Present". This attempts
to summarise the problem now, in 2005,
with regards to the subject in question.
This is followed by "The Vision",
which is written in such a way as
to give the reader an idea of how
Kinsale could be, if all the recommendations
up to that point had been implemented.
Part of the challenge with permaculture
is how we convey to people the concept
that a lower energy future could be
preferable, more fulfilling, and more
abundant than the present. This section
aims to do that, so that people can
see in their minds' eye what it would
look like.
This is then followed by a list of
suggestions and recommendations in
chronological order. These are meant
to be ambitious but also achievable,
given a good deal of motivation and
support. Each section is then rounded
off with a collection of resources
and Internet links. The last section
of the Action Plan is a proposal for
a Kinsale Sustainability Centre. The
idea is that the Centre would be formed
with the brief of implementing the
Action Plan. The Sustainability Centre
would act as a focus for the work,
running courses and training, but
would also provide a service, offering
initiatives such as an urban market
garden. (A pdf of the final report
can be downloaded from www.transitionculture.org).
Next
Steps
Our intention is for this year's second-year
students to take the Plan as it is
and develop it further. We hope to
set up a series of think-tank events,
like the Kinsale 2021 day, but which
are more specific to different areas
of the Plan; for example one on health,
where they would invite all the people
in Kinsale working in the field, and
another on education, inviting teachers,
parents and other people with an involvement.
These events would be based around
what has already been proposed in
the Plan, but getting feedback as
to how practical our suggestions might
be. These events would serve a dual
purpose. First, they'd act as an essential
community sounding board for the Plan's
ideas, and second, they would open
doors into the community for the project.
All kinds of new practical projects
would be proposed and contacts made.
They would also serve to bring this
work to the community, rather than
expecting it to come to us, or sitting
around thinking "Why is no one
doing anything?" The great thing
about being based in a college doing
this work is that you can call on
30 pairs of hands if the feeling is
to go and build a garden somewhere.
Thirty pair of hands get a lot done!
Final
Thoughts
The Kinsale Energy Descent Action
Plan has been very well received.
Reviewing it for Permaculture Magazine,
Patrick Whitefield described it as
a "remarkable piece of work"
and continued to "recommend their
plan to people everywhere who would
like to see some positive action happen
in their own community." Despite
its not been conducted by professionals
or by a respected research organisation,
it has touched a chord and excited
lots of people with its possibilities.
It had no external funding other than
the ability to use the college facilities.
However, I think what was created
in the Plan is a very important and
far-reaching piece of work. It does
something that I think is very bold
and powerful. It invites people to
look beyond where we are now, and
beyond simply allowing events to unravel,
and to look towards where they would
like to be. It allows people to dream,
but not in a woolly, ungrounded way.
It is rooted in practicality; we are
creating the building blocks, and
we can't put the second one in place
before the first. In the same way
that in permaculture design we aim
to make our mistakes on paper first
so as to avoid costly mistakes in
the landscape, with the Energy Descent
Action Plan we aim to clarify a step-by-step
way down, so as to best focus our
energies.
I also think it is important to be
realistic. For example, I don't imagine
that anything approaching a majority
of the population would embrace this
approach yet. However, what we can
do is start putting in place the infrastructure
that will be needed (seed saving clubs,
protecting a certain proportion of
land in urban areas from development,
preserving skills and knowledge, teaching
skills to younger people, creating
community compost schemes so we have
a resource of compost for growers).
When people say "but where will
our fruit come from?", we can
say "from the five-acre orchard
over there that we planted seven years
ago." We can begin to build systems
around people. At the same time we
need to engage them as much as possible,
and see our work as being of service.
This is fascinating work and should
be started in every settlement. It
is big-picture thinking, town-scale
permaculture, and needs to be rolled
out across the country as a matter
of great urgency.
New
Pathways
The Action Plan was completed and
printed in June 2005. Around that
time we held a conference at Kinsale
FEC called Fuelling the FutureÑthe
Challenge and Opportunity of Peak
Oil. It was very successful, and brought
together speakers such as David Holmgren,
Richard Heinberg, Colin Campbell,
Richard Douthwaite, and myself. It
looked at peak oil, but also at the
solutions. As well as the main speakers
there were a number of smaller breakout
sessions on permaculture, food, energy,
building, local economics, and so
on (all of the main speakers can be
heard at www.fuellingthefuture.org).
Many people said they had never been
to a conference on peak oil that they
had left feeling so positive. Two
of the students who graduated from
the permaculture course at Kinsale
are looking to set up a consultancy
called Transition Design, working
with communities and councils to set
up energy descent action plans. Their
idea is that towns are helped to work
through certain criteria to earn the
accolade of being a "Transition
Town." Work has also begun on
Version 2 of the Action Plan.
And me? After ten years living in
Ireland I handed the 2006 permaculture
course over to colleague Graham Strouts
and returned to Devon in the UK to
pursue a Ph.D. on this whole topic.
It feels to me like the most essential
work I can be doing at this point
in history. Also I feel it is important
to counter some of the more lurid
catastrophe scenarios being put out
by some in the peak oil movement.
I see peak oil as the great opportunity,
the chance finally to create the world
we have been talking of for years.
In my research now, I am putting together
a book (as well as the Ph.D.) which
will explore what I call the head,
the heart and the hands of energy
descent. The head means the factual
understanding of peak oil, what it
is and what it means, as well as the
economics and politics of localisation.
The heart refers to an area pretty
much unexplored in the peak oil literature:
how do we tell people and communities
about this stuff without them retreating
further into fear and denial? How
do we present something so potentially
catastrophic as a positive choice
and opportunity? Some of the answers
to this question can be found in eco-psychology,
some in the works of Joanna Macy,
Ken Jones, Tom Atlee, and others,
people exploring the area of turning
trauma into action, despair into empowerment.
I feel it is an essential part of
this work, as giving people bad news
and expecting them to do something
has clearly not worked for the environmental
movement in the past. We need a new
approach.
The hands refers to the practical
work of grassroots led responses to
peak oil. Energy descent action planning
could be the model, but the Natural
Step and the Global Action Plan have
something to contribute as proven
methods for inspiring communities
to change their practices. Also, how
much food will the settlement need
and where will it come from? What
structures are best for promoting
energy independence? Once you start
to think about them, the practical
implications and the list of questions
are huge. What I hope to do is produce
a set of principles and a toolkit
of techniques that can be used anywhere.
The focus of the work will be the
designing and undertaking of a transition
process for the town of Totnes, in
Devon, where I now live. As part of
this work I have set up a website,
www.transitionculture.org,
where I will post findings, links,
ideas, and references as I proceed
with this research. The site also
has archives of other useful information.
I hope to have the book finished by
next Autumn. The Totnes process will
begin around the same time, once the
process has been carefully designed.
The advent of peak oil offers those
people who have long envisioned a
more sustainable world the opportunity
to step forward and start building
the world of their dreams. To retreat
into an attitude of "Well it's
not worth it, we're doomed,"
is to deny our own potential. In the
speech that Nelson Mandela gave when
released from prison, he said, "Our
deepest fear is not that we are inadequate.
Our deepest fear is that we are powerful
beyond measure. It is our light, not
our darkness, that most frightens
us." Energy descent action plans,
or whatever approach to this challenge
we ultimately devise, offer us a vision
for embarking on a great journey and
for unleashing both permaculture's
and our own untapped potential. It
is time now that we roll up our sleeves.
For
more information visit www.fuellingthefuture.org.
References
Atleee, T. (2003) The Tao of Democracy.
Campbell, C.J. (2005) Oil Crisis.
Multi Science Publishing.
Heinberg, R. (2004) Powerdown:
Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon
World. Clairview.
Holmgren, D. (2003) Permaculture
Principles & Pathways Beyond Sustainability.
Holmgren Design Services.
Macy, J. & Brown, M.Y. (1998)
Coming Back to Life: Practices
to Reconnect Our Lives, Our World.
New Society Publishers.
Rob
Hopkins is a permaculture designer
and teacher. Founding Director of
The Hollies Centre for Practical Sustainability
(www.theholliesonline.com),
and creator of the Practical Sustainability
course at Kinsale FEC, he has long
been at the forefront of practical
approaches to sustainability in Ireland.
He has now returned to his native
England, where he is pursuing a Ph.D.
on energy descent action planning
at Plymouth University. He runs www.transitionculture.org,
a
resource for people interested in
this work, and also a place where
The Kinsale Energy Descent Action
Plan can be downloaded. He can be
contacted at robjhopkins@gmail.com.
Plans are afoot for Fuelling the Future
2 in late June 2006.
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