We are learning that
a warming world means
a wetter world.
On a planet that is
three-quarters covered
with liquid water, this
should come as no surprise.
Call it the Bathtub
Effect. Warm up the
bathwater and more moisture
condenses on the cool
walls of the bathroom:
drip, drip, drip. Warm
up the world's oceans
and more moisture enters
the atmosphere: rain,
snow, rain, snow. Heating
of the global atmosphere
and oceans by the increased
insulative effect of
CO2 emissions has increased
atmospheric humidity
by 4% on average since
1980. That may not sound
like much, but it translates
into many more rainstorms,
snowstorms, hurricanes,
tornados, and El Ninos.
This is set to continue
for a long time, as
the amount of heat that
has been trapped by
the earth's atmosphere”that
is, absorbed from the
sun, but not re-radiated
into space”is
about twice the amount
that has shown up as
measurable effects.
The rest is a staggering
amount of latent heat
in the atmosphere, oceans,
and icecaps. It is estimated
that feedback loops
from the melting of
icecaps (reducing albedo
or reflectivity) and
permafrost (releasing
longtrapped methane)
will double the heating
effects of the energy
already received. This
means that four times
the amount of energy
already showing itself
will ultimately be registered
as effects on the world's
weather and environment.
And that is if carbon
levels in the atmosphere
were to be stabilized
today. Since we are
still riding the CO,
roller coaster up”392
ppm and counting”the
downside is going to
be even bigger.
Let
us try to bring this
Bathtub Effect into
a little clearer focus.
The monsoon which waters
the Indian subcontinent
operates in much the
same way as global heating
and storming. Warm,
moist air rising from
the Indian Ocean is
drawn inland and northward
over peninsular India
by the rapid heating
of the Eurasian land
mass during the Northern
Hemisphere summer. Land
both heats and cools
more rapidly than water”which
is why there is as much
change in temperature
from day to night in
Santa Fe, New Mexico,
high in the desert,
as there is from summer
to winter in San Francisco,
a city at sea level
and surrounded on three
sides by water. Tropical
island dwellers know
this too, because daytime
heating pulls a breeze
offthe ocean which reverses
in the early evening
as cooler air over the
land is drawn offshore
by the warmer sea. Warmer
land temperatures caused
by increased CO, levels
in the atmosphere will
draw more moisture inland
from warmer oceans,
and rain and snowfall
will increase, at least
in areas near coasts
or affected by oceanic
wind patterns.
Flooded
streets are increasingly
familiar around the
globe. Photo Keith Johnson.
This
past summer, temperatures
soared, not only in
North America, but over
large parts of Asia.
Fires burnt across much
of the Russian Federation
as Moscow blasted through
its previous record
high temperature of
99°F / 37°C
to hit 111°F / 44°C.
Pakistan set an all
Asia, all-time record
of 129°F / 54°C.
The seasonal melting
of snow from the Himalayas
and the Hindu Kush,
combined with the apocalyptic
melting of glaciers
already underway for
several decades, all
compounded by an extra
strong monsoon, or "chimney"
effect drawing moisture
from the ocean, led
to catastrophic flooding
in Pakistan for months.
A fifth of the counry
was underwater for many
weeks. Eleven million
people were displaced
from their homes, infrastructure
was devastated, and
cholera broke out in
a number of areas.
In
the same way, global
storming is going to
bring deluges to many
areas around the world,
but leave others high
and dry. Remember that
Russia is in the rain
shadow of high mountains
across virtually its
whole southern border:
the Caucasus, the Erebrus
Mountains in Iran, the
Hindu Kush, the Himalayas,
the Pamirs, and others
farther north. Because
of the collision of
plates and folding of
the earth that is occurring
in this region, almost
all of its mountain
ranges run east and
west, intercepting the
southerly, moisture-laden
rains from the tropical
Indian Ocean. Russian
weather generated much
of the heat that drew
in the rains over Pakistan,
but Russia didn't benefit
from the moisture. So
it will be with many
mid-continental areas:
engines of greater rainfall
and storming, they will
see less moisture themselves.
The
increased risk of flooding
is not just from more
rainfall and glacial
melt, but also from
storm-related tidal
surges and more. This
spring, the world was
transfixed as an unprecedented
earthquake of magnitude
9.0 off the northeast
coast of Japan launched
a deadly tsunami, killing
more than 20,000 people
within minutes, and
setting off a cascade
of disastrous events
at a nuclear plant on
the coast of Fukushima
prefecture. As the third
magnitude 9 quake in
seven years and the
second in 12 months,
the Japan earthquake
has heightened speculation
that increasing sea
levels, also brought
about by global heating,
are ramping up seismic
activity. (The Indian
Ocean tsunami of December
2004 was driven by a
massive quake offthe
coast of Sumatra; the
2010 quake along the
Chilean coast was of
comparable magnitude.)
With justifiable fears
for their densely developed
coastline and the real
risks of tsunami all
along the seismically
active island chain,
the Japanese built what
has become perhaps the
world's most deadly
gold brick in the form
of their vast array
of concrete sea walls,
none of which protected
anyone when "the
big one" struck.
Of particular relevance
though, is the illusion
of safety that the walls
created, which seems
to have induced the
Tokyo Electric Power
Company, operator of
the Fukushima reactors,
to place its diesel
back-up generators and
their fuel supplies”utterly
critical to the continued
safe operation of the
plant in the event of
massive grid failure”at
ground level. They went
underwater. The fires,
explosions, and radiation
releases, and the open-ended
drama of regaining or
losing control of the
nuclear genie were all
set in place by this
and compounding acts
of hubris: the seawalls
won't be breached; the
back-up systems can
cool the reactors and
the fuel rods, the containment
vessels will hold; the
containment vessels
were 'perfectly adequate'
and 'cheaper to build';
putting the spent fuel
rods in pools on top
of the reactors saves
space, and we can always
spray them with water...and
anyway, nothing bad
can happen to us. .
.can it?
Five
and a half years ago,
the narrative was all
about storm surge, faulty
levees, and river flooding
in New Orleans and along
the Gulf Coast. In other
recent years, the pictures
from Bangladesh have
shown a country under
water. Quietly in the
background of world
events, the residents
of the Chatham Islands
in the south Pacific
have negotiated a permanent
retreat to New Zealand,
as their former homeland
slides under the waves.
As the world heats up,
rainfall increases,
and sea levels continue
to rise, we will see
flooding more and more
take center stage as
society attempts to
cope with the effects
of technological overreach.
Just because it is possible
to boil water with the
heat of a nuclear reaction
does not mean we should
do so. Just because
it is possible to contain
a nuclear reaction does
not mean we will always
be able to do so. Just
because there's more
oil underground doesn't
mean we should pump
it out and burn it.
My
own foretaste of warmer-means-wetter
came six years ago when
I experienced first-hand
the effect of three
hurricanes in three
weeks. Then living in
western North Carolina
in a rural ecovillage,
I wrote about that local
disaster in the pages
of issue #54 of this
magazine, contrasting
rural and urban preparedness,
and noting the distinctive
patterns of the various
storms, one generating
enormous rainfall (Francis),
another unexpected wind
damage (Ivan). The city
of Asheville, home to
about 60,000 people,
had no nuclear disaster
then, but it saw its
own ugly cascade of
effects from intense
and sudden flooding,
as chemical dumps and
oil tanks along the
Swannanoa River ruptured
and flowed into the
Tennessee River watershed,
source of drinking water
for a million people.
Electrical and public
water systems failed
as a result of the storms.
Attempts to preserve
the city's main reservoir
led directly to destruction
of the supply system
itself. The Asheville
flooding, from Hurricanes
Francis, Ivan, and Jean,
happened a year before
Katrina struck the Gulf
Coast, and it was really
a minor footnote in
the long march toward
a brave new world, but
the lessons that it
delivered and that I
attempted to summarize
then, are no less relevant
today.
More
than cars are in the
floodwaters. Photo:
Keith Johnson
Why
floods kill
Historically,
floods have been the
most devastating of
natural disasters, killing
more people and causing
more damage than fire,
earthquake, tornadoes,
and volcanic eruptions
combined. This comes
about because of five
interactive factors:
1.
River valleys and seacoasts
have been the site of
civilizational growth
since the end of the
Neolithic era. Populations
are dense along fertile
alluvial floodplains
and coasts. About 50%
of humanity lives within
50 miles of the ocean.
In many coastal regions
there is little high
ground, so that almost
everything goes under
water during floods.
Almost by definition,
the richest land is
the flattest and, ironically,
the most vulnerable
to the deadliest of
disasters. Two of the
world's most densely
settled regions”
Holland and Bangladesh,
both river deltas and
each with over 1,000
persons per square mile,
are located at or below
sea level.
2.
Agriculture and urbanization
increase runoffdramatically
compared to native (mostly
forested) landscapes.
The channelization of
rivers for barge transport
and dikes and levees
built against flood
both exacerbate flooding
by reducing the stream's
natural capacity to
absorb the shock of
high flows.
3.
Key infrastructure”public
buildings, ports and
depots, road and rail
lines, power plants,
water and sewer systems
is located close to
creeks, rivers, and
seacoasts for reasons
of enduring practicality.
When floods hit, the
loss of support systems
creates chaos and throws
people back on limited
personal resources.
Everything becomes much,
much harder. Escape
routes also become blocked,
so that people fleeing
the rising waters become
trapped and sometimes
drown.
4.
Flood seizes everything
loose and distributes
it widely. In particular,
water spreads disease
organisms by moving
manure, nightsoil, and
sewage out of confined
areas. In the modern
era, the leakage of
industrial pollutants
can be added to this
list. Rodent populations
are disturbed and begin
to proliferate among
the rubble and debris.
This creates conditions
for the rapid spread
of infectious diseases.
5.
Drinking water supplies
are disrupted or contaminated,
while medical and emergency
services are encumbered.
In the 2008 flooding
that inundated parts
of central Indiana,
among the first casualties
in the city of Columbus,
east of where I live,
was the hospital, rendered
inoperable by rising
floodwaters that filled
its basement and ground
floors.
Portent
of things to come
To
this list of five human-implicated
factors in flood damage,
we most assuredly can
add a 21st-century sixth:
global storming.
Climate change brought
about by the burning
of fossil fuels and
by deforestation has
increased both the speed
and volume of the hydrologic
cycle worldwide. Warmer
atmospheres and sea
temperatures are resulting
in more tropical storms,
as evidenced by the
increase in superstorms,
the lengthening of the
hurricane and typhoon
seasons, and the spread
of severe storms to
new areas. Brazil recorded
its first ever hurricane-force
storm offthe South Atlantic
in 2004. Typhoon flooding
racked Burma last year
and tens of thousands
may have died. Rainfall
increases overall. Distribution
becomes more erratic,
bringing drought to
many areas, but this
results in more intense
rain events, hence more
flooding. This does
not bode well for the
global economy, already
staggering under debt
load and resource shortages.
The year 2011, not half
over, stands to present
the insurance industry
with its heaviest losses
ever, and there is no
end in sight to this
trend. Annual loss payouts
are up ten-fold in the
past 25 years. Individuals
and businesses ulimately
pay these costs, which
drag against other pressing
needs.
Heavy
weather poses unexpected
problems beyond excessive
rain. Wind directions
can be very erratic.
Ivan the Terrible, a
category 5 hurricane
that crossed northern
Florida, Alabama, and
Georgia in 2004 before
it washed itself out
over the Carolinas,
showed sustained winds
over 200 mph as it struck
Cuba a glancing blow
on the way north. Five
hundred miles inland
Ivan still had enough
wind force to fell 100-year
old trees, blocking
roads and bringing down
power lines over western
North Carolina. In our
small village, several
people came within a
few feet of being crushed
in their sleep as giant
trees fell. The weather
service reported that
storm was the sixth
most powerful hurricane
ever to originate in
the Atlantic. Hurricane
Mitch, which killed
nearly 20,000 in Nicaragua
and Honduras in 1998
(one of the hottest
years on record) was
of the same caliber.
So was Hurricane Katrina
in 2005 as it moved
inland over the Louisiana
marshes.
Ivan's
effects were particularly
destructive because
it brought high winds
unexpectedly out of
the southeast. In the
northern hemisphere
hurricanes and typhoons
circulate in a counter-clockwise
direction. The opposite
is true south of the
Equator. That means
that hurricanes hitting
the southeast US coast
lead with northeasterly
winds, and storms crossing
the Gulf Coast between
East Texas and Flonda
(as Ivan did) can carry
fierce southeasterlies.
This is just the reverse
of prevailing winter
storms so it complicates
the problem of design
for wind protection.
What
can we do about it?
Design for flood
protection should focus
on minimizing damage.
The watchwords are
knowledge and preparation.
The first and most important
defense is inforrnation.
Maps of the floodplain
are essential tools
for cataloguing risk
and avoiding Type I
errors in building placement.
When the North Carolina
legislature authorized
$41 million to update
floodplain maps in the
state following Hurricane
Floyd in 1999, it neglected
to ensure that this
money was distributed
statewide. None of it
reached the mountain
counties, which were
imagined to be at little
risk. In 2004, we learned
that risk was everywhere.
Knowing
what areas will flood
when enough rain falls
allows you not only
to avoid placing buildings
there, but tells you
what should be removed.
Chemicals, fuels, and
biocides don't mix well
with flood waters. Neither
do nuclear fuel rods
and reactors. Be sure
to secure these substances
out of harm's way. It
may not be easy to relocate
nuclear plants away
from the seacoast, but
we should make efforts
to decommission and
remove radioactive material
from those that are
already there, and avoid
building any more.
Healthy
streams have associated
wetlands, meanders,
and ample flood plains
to help them absorb
high water flows. We
have to resist the development
pressures to channelize
streams or to usurp
these areas for inappropriate
purposes. Planting crops
in a flood plain is
a relatively harmless
ephemeral activity (though
lowland forests might
be more ecologically
sound). So too are parks
and sports playing fields,
but garbage dumps in
flood-prone areas, for
example, pose unnecessary
risks to public health.
Know
what lies upstream and
uphill of you and what
may be brought down
by heavy runoff. If
you live downstream
from a large body of
impounded water, it's
in your interest to
know whether that dam
is sound and if there
is a proper spillway
to protect it. (see
PCA #52, Max Lindegger
on dams)
If
you live in a flood-prone
area, plan an evacuation
route to higher ground,
and be prepared to activate
it early. Remember that
crossing roads. or streams
already in flood is
a bad idea. You or your
vehicle could easily
be swept away. Even
a foot of rapidly flowing
water has enough force
to knock you off your
feet, especially if
the surface below is
irregular. If you are
caught by floodwaters
in a vehicle, get out
of it as quickly as
possible.
Inland
areas subject to flooding
face one set of risks,
most of which can be
foreseen (and thus planned
for) because of the
relatively predictable
way high water will
interact with landforms.
The greatest impact
of floods is typically
first to property, and
secondly to health due
to loss of services
and the spread of disease.
Drowning is usually
limited to cases of
panic or poor judgment,
except in the case of
tsunami. Unless floodwaters
are constricted”as
in narrow mountain valleys,
amplified by dam failure,
or arrive downstream
with little warning
(as in some desert areas),
there is usually time
for people to seek shelter
on higher ground. Due
to artificial engineering
of the shipping channel,
residents of the lower
Mississippi Valley face
compound risks from
levee failure, which
can direct huge, abrupt
flows in unexpected
directions. This can
be compounded by sabotage,
either local or national
in origin, as it was
below New Orleans in
the great spring flood
of 1927, and may be
again under extreme
duress. Relieving the
river's raging flood
at someone else's expense
is only a few handsful
of dynamite away, an
easy temptation for
desperate people thrown
into a kind of alluvial
arms race of terror.
When
winds compound flood
Coastal
areas subject to tropical
storms experience not
only the problems of
flooding, but of storm
surge and particularly
of high winds. Coastlines,
even more than main
river valleys, are heavily
populated. This compounds
the problem of evacuation.
Hurricane-force winds
(over 70 mph) are sufficient
to lift a person off
his feet, but the greater
danger is from wind-borne
objects. Metal roofing
torn loose can be especially
dangerous as it sails
with great velocity
and can strike with
potentially lethal impact.
Even where codes do
not yet require it,
hurricane strapping
to secure the roof to
the house frame is a
good idea.
The
danger from high winds
is what leads public
officials and anxious
residents to evacuate
coastal areas. Don't
let complacency undermine
your safety. In 1992,
Hurricane Andrew was
a wake-up call for Florida
but the point was driven
home even harder in
2004 when Charlie and
Francis laid waste to
the state in quick succession.
Many attempted to flee,
but fuel and food supplies
quickly ran out and
evacuation from the
long peninsula became
impossible for millions.
Coastal
areas are more prone
to floods as well as
wind damage. Photo:
Keith Johnson
Thinking
ahead
Preparation
is essential. There
is no time in the midst
of a catastrophe to
gather supplies, practice
rescue techniques, or
find misplaced tools.
Are you ready for storms,
floods, power outages,
or worse? The conditions
are ripe for all these
events to become more
frequent. Florida may
now be alert to the
hazards, but areas which
periodically but infrequently
experience hurricanes,
such as the Southern
Appalachians and New
England, are perhaps
even more vulnerable
because preparations
there may be weaker.
The human tendency is
to dismiss what has
not been recently in
mind. All areas within
500 miles of the coast
between the Rio Grande
and Nova Scotia are
at risk. The current
pattern appears to move
storm tracks farther
west as the season advances.
With longer storm seasons
(beginning in July and
continuing through November,
more hurricanes are
likely to make landfall
on the US).
Know
your weak points and
be prepared to address
them as soon as
a storm threatens. Should
vehicles be moved? Do
loose tools or machinery
need to be secured?
Are water lines and
critical infrastructure
at risk? Are firefighting,
construction and demolition
tools, and emergency
supplies ready at hand?
After Francis disrupted
infrastructure at Earthaven
Ecovillage, which was
built off-grid in steep
mountain valleys of
western North Carolina,
village workers spent
the days leading up
to Ivan clearing logjams
from the creeks so that
they would stay in their
channels, securing water
lines to higher ground,
preparing flood overflow
channels, and protecting
bridge abutments. It
paid off. Though water
levels weren't as high
because overall rain
was less with Ivan (5.5
inches in one day against
11.5 inches from Francis
in two), there was no
flood-related damage
at all from the second
storm. We did learn
how vulnerable the community
was to tall trees near
houses, standing dead
snags near trails, and
similar potential wind
hazards, all of which
windy Ivan threw in
our faces!
Protecting
water supplies is the
other chief concern
in the face of flood.
Centralized systems
are wonderfully convenient,
but also vulnerable.
Distributed storage,
as from roof catchment,
will make any community
more resilient against
catastrophe. The ordinary
household without a
large tank could still
mitigate the worst outcomes
by keeping a supply
of bottled water in
the house (maybe not
in the basement...).
Five to ten gallons
per person should be
on hand at all. times.
Another strategy for
preparing against loss
of water supply is to
rig up one or more rain
barrels under the downspouts
to provide basic water
for washing. This is
fast and simple, and
by making 50-100 gallons
of water immediately
available for household
sanitation, can do much
to make life during
a emergency less stressful.
In my experience, the
permaculture ethic of
self-reliance lays a
good foundation for
response to catastrophe.
By creating local systems
of power generation,
water and food supply,
and the capacity to
manage basic infrastructure,
our household has learned
to do for ourselves
what must be done for
city dwellers by experts.
The
other pillar of strength
against adversity is
community. In 2004,
our village's many-layered
and rich connections
with each other came
dramatically to the
fore in the face of
the common challenge
of flooding and storms.
In an admirable display
of solidarity and compassion,
the Japanese nation
has organized itself
to provide care and
relief for all its members.
All human communities
have this latent capacity
to one degree or another,
but knowing in advance
whom to call and how
to reach one's neighbors
can make a critical
difference in times
of crisis, when ordinary
civil resources are
unavailable. It is up
to each of us to assess
our situation and take
the necessary steps
to bolster collective
security. Our well-being
is always dependent
to some degree on the
health and safety of
others around us, but
in the event of natural
disaster this bedrock
of society is exposed
for all to see.
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